April’s US Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a decline in job openings to 8.06 million from 8.355 million, the lowest level since February 2021. Bankrate Senior Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick joins Wealth! to break down the print and explain what it means for the economy’s struggle with inflation.
“I think this is pretty consistent with what we expect in the context of a job sector and a broader economy that are normalizing after the disruption, the volatility, the distortions associated with the pandemic,” Hamrick explains. He notes that in February 2021, the economy was rushing to reopen, and what we’re seeing now is a relatively healthy stabilization.
As for the Federal Reserve’s next debt charge rate decision, Hamrick says the Fed’s current focus “is almost exclusively on the stable prices piece,” as overall inflation remains above its 2% target. He notes that several more months of data is needed before the Fed can be confident in deflation, and adds that “the Fed does not believe that wage gains have been a primary cause of the inflation that we have seen.” He instead points to supply chain disruptions as the principal source of inflation.
Hamrick expects one to two rate cuts by the end of the year, warning, “We have a long way to go before we get there.”
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