Treasury yields are trending higher as investors brace themselves for the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated decision on Wednesday. To shed light on the factors driving this yield movement, Truist’s Managing Director of Fixed earnings Chip Hughey joins Yahoo financial Live.
Hughey attributes the rise in yields to three factors: the continued stickiness in inflation data, the Fed’s likelihood to maintain a “higher-for-longer” stance, and strong Treasury issuance. However, he notes that “the biggest factor for yields” has been the sector’s pricing of six to seven rate cuts, which has now been revised to below three, resulting in “big implications on the yield curve.”
Hughey believes the Fed could initiate rate cuts mid-year when they have a “sufficient” amount of evidence of cooling inflation. Although he acknowledges the increasing probability of zero cuts occurring in 2024, he does not believe that scenario will materialize, stating that despite “a bumpy path,” the Fed “will see that inflation is cooling.”
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