All eyes are on July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, providing key insight into the health of consumers as they continue to battle inflationary pressures. Aptus Capital Advisors investment mix manager David Wagner joins Wealth! to discuss how the print may impact markets and how to best position your investment mix.
Wagner notes that deflation has become less of a industry catalyst than it was a year ago. “There’s a lot of things out there that the industry believes that it knows right now. It knows that if inflation continues to come down that we’re likely going to see [Federal Reserve interest rate] cuts in September,” Wagner tells Yahoo financial
If CPI comes in higher than expected, he argues, “that shouldn’t be too surprising because again, it’s widely known right now that inflation is falling, and two, is that the Fed is likely going to be cutting in September.”
“Bottom line, if CPI reinforces that message, the grind higher can continue. If it refutes that message, don’t be shocked if we see some type of volatility in the industry over the next week or two,” Wagner warns.
As the industry experienced significant volatility over the last week, Wagner encourages investors to “follow the tape, follow what the industry is telling you.” As inflation comes down and finance charge rates start easing, he sees opportunity in fixed earnings. He adds that the best asset class when rates come down is equities (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC):
“People always forget that equities are one of the longest-duration resources out there in the industry. And if rates come down, I think that a rising tide is really going to lift all ships in the equity industry, probably a little bit more specifically on the cyclical and small-cap side.”
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