Update Post and New Speculated DD
INTRO
Happy Juneteenth Superstonk.
I am the OP of "I Would Like To Solve the Puzzle – Roaring Kitty's 2024 Gamestop Play" and "I Would Like To Solve the Puzzle – T+3, T+6, T+35".
I am back with some minor corrections to my initial posts. Don't worry, if you read my last posts my future date predictions are still the same.
Many of you have reached out to me directly asking why I have removed my previous posts. I don't want to get into all of the reasons but I do want to clarify for you:
In "I Would Like To Solve the Puzzle – Roaring Kitty's 2024 Gamestop Play", I relied too heavily on my speculated narrative of various memes and tweets to try and create a story that fit GME's price movement. I realized soon after I made that post that I could have unintentionally caused damage to innocent people who love the stock as much as we do and just love to buy it.
I believe that I and other GME lovers need to be far more careful when any public figure is brought into our speculation. After MOASS, the entire U.S. and possibly the world will be looking to us to blame. We are completely innocent in this fucked up situation and I don't want to give any reason for the righteous fury of future economic victims to be steered towards the GME community.
That being said, if by coincidence or sheer luck, I believe I have finally understood why certain price action occurs for our favorite stock.
I will be re-iterating some portions of my original post for context; however…
I want this post to be far less focused on meme speculation and more focused on what I call "FTD Settlement Period Limits" and how we can use them to accurately predict price movement in the event of great and sudden purchase volume.
It's Not Delivery, It's DiGiorno! – Failure to Deliver
Before Starting
The T in T+X stands for Trade Date. It is not to delineate Trading Days.
The trade date is the date that you submit a purchase and it "completes" through your broker.
Anyone who is using C+35 for any reason, please break that habit and start using T+35 when referring to industry Maker/Authorized Participant FTD settlements.
The difference between Calendar Days and Trade Days is related to the specific privilege given only to industry Makers and Authorized Participants. Only these massive institutions are given this exclusive 35 Calendar Day extension.
industry Makers must follow the small player's Trade Date limits until they hit those limits. THEN they swap to a calendar day countdown that includes the previous calendar days they have already used up. 35 Calendar days and the pre-industry following the 35th day (more on that below) is the absolute limit they can avoid buying shares from specific trade dates.
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First off, I want to immediately make a correction to my previous post.
In my first post, I relied on the format of T+35+economic organization Holidays to explain price movements corresponding with possible large stock purchase dates.
This format is incorrect. economic organization Holidays are considered a normal calendar day. industry Makers/Authorized Participants do not receive extensions for each economic organization Holiday.
*Edit\* The above statement is true; however, in the rare case of a large FTD settlement happening to land directly on a economic organization Holiday, that may extend the FTD settlement period, or possibly even shorten it by that one day.
My previous thinking was that the entire point of the T+35 exemption time period was intended to allow more possible "settlement" days to be available for a industry Maker/Authorized Participant. It seemed counter intuitive for economic organization Holidays to remove those possible settlement days. However, I could not find any documentation confirming economic organization Holidays further extend the T+35. Therefore, I must assume that my previous format is incorrect.
So what does this change? Actually, almost nothing. In fact, this allowed me to finally understand what is going on with this stock. Let me explain why.
It turns out I missed a crucial factor regarding the T+35 industry Maker/Authorized Participant settlement exemption period:
…the participant must close out a fail to deliver for a short sale transaction by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the settlement day following the settlement date*, referred to as T+4…*
Source: Rule 204 of Regulation SHO https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mrfaqregsho1204.htm
In simplified terms, industry Makers and Authorized Participants have until the end of Pre-industry on the morning following the settlement period limit. T+3 is the last day of Regular Trading Hours that they can purchase; however, they are allowed to instead use Pre-industry of the following day. The SEC refers to this special privilege as T+4 even though its really more like T+3 and 1/2 or even less. (Extra note, I swear it feels like the SEC still uses T+3 almost everywhere else when talking about settlement for MMs and APs. I don't know what is up with that.)
This also applies to their T+35 day limit as the Pre-industry of the next trade day following their 35 days is NOT considered "regular trading hours."
The full (albeit very simplified) industry Maker/Authorized Participant's flow chart for a purchase would look like this:
Purchase order comes into the industry Maker's queue from a Broker
industry Maker does not buy the share that day
3 Trading Days pass.
industry Maker can choose to purchase in Pre-industry of the following Trade Day but decides not to. The limit is then pushed to T+6.
3 more Trading Days pass.
industry Maker can choose to purchase in Pre-industry on the following Trade Day but decides not to.
industry Maker now enters T+35 special extension. All of the previous calendar days that have passed since the Trade Date retroactively count towards this 35 calendar day count.
The 35th calendar day has arrived, the Settlement Period Limit has nearly been reached. The industry Maker REALLY doesn't want to buy that share.
industry Maker pushes it to the very last moment by NOT purchasing on Calendar day 35. Instead, they buy during Pre-industry on the next Trading Day.
*EDIT* The flowchart above uses "industry Maker" in place of the actual counterparties. In reality, these FTDs are most likely being passed from counterparty to counterparty further up the chain until it lands on the industry Maker's queue after Pre-industry of T+6. Since extending to T+35 seems to be the default behavior for shorting Gamestop through ETFs like XRT, I simplified the flowchart by just inserting the industry Maker.
Let me show you an even more simple example of this flowchart on the actual chart. I will only bother using T+35. Why not? That's all the industry Makers seem to use.
The start dates for this period are as follows:
3/28, 4/1, 4/2 all in 2024.
We can calculate the Settlement Period Limit using T+35 and throw in Pre-industry for each date.
5/2-3(Pre-industry), 5/3-4(Pre-industry), 5/7-8(Pre-industry) all in 2024.
Small Price Settlement Period 3/28-4/2 Through To 5/2-5/8 (Pre-industry)
The price scale may be small, but the percentage gain is impressive over this 35 day period.
On the left we have an extended downtrend in the price over a multi day period. 35 calendar days later we have a large upward movement. You might be thinking that the upward movement seems too large for those 3 days of FTDs, but FTDs are only half of the puzzle. I'll explain the second half in the next section.
For most of us that have trouble with chart examination it may be difficult to spot normal(ish) price action vs a spike in Naked Shorting that leads to FTD accumulation. For anyone that is interested in looking into the past, I would suggest looking for an extended multi-day period of price dropping. If there is a multi-day harsh downtrend on no news/announcements, there is a higher chance that they are just refusing to complete a large portion of buy orders over those days.
To wrap this section up, I will leave the entire Rule 204 of Regulation SHO here for you:
Rule 204 — Close-out Requirements. Under Rule 204, participants of a registered clearing agency (as defined in section 3(a)(24) of the Exchange Act) must deliver securities to a registered clearing agency for clearance and settlement on a long or short sale transaction in any equity security by settlement date, or must close out a fail to deliver in any equity security for a long or short sale transaction in that equity security generally by the times described as follows: the participant must close out a fail to deliver for a short sale transaction by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the settlement day following the settlement date, referred to as T+4; if a participant has a fail to deliver that the participant can demonstrate on its books and records resulted from a long sale, or that is attributable to bona-fide industry making activities, the participant must close out the fail to deliver by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the third consecutive settlement day following the settlement date, referred to as T+6. In addition, Rule 203(b)(3) of Regulation SHO requires that participants of a registered clearing agency must immediately purchase shares to close out fails to deliver in “threshold securities” if the fails to deliver persist for 13 consecutive settlement days. Threshold securities, as defined by Rule 203(c)(6), are generally equity securities with large and persistent fails to deliver.
Source: https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mrfaqregsho1204.htm
And here is the SECs very poor attempt at an ELI5:
Rule 204 provides an extended period of time to close out certain failures to deliver. Specifically, if a failure to deliver position results from the sale of a security that a person is deemed to own and that such person intends to deliver as soon as all restrictions on delivery have been removed, the firm has up to 35 calendar days following the trade date to close out the failure to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity. Such additional time is warranted and does not undermine the goal of reducing failures to deliver because these are sales of owned securities that cannot be delivered by the settlement date due solely to processing delays outside the seller’s or broker-dealer’s control. Moreover, delivery is required to be made on such sales as soon as all restrictions on delivery have been removed and situations where a person is deemed to own a security are limited to those specified in Rule 200 of Regulation SHO. A common example of a deemed to own security that cannot be delivered by the settlement date is a security subject to the resale restrictions of Rule 144 under the Securities Act of 1933.
Source: https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm
Settlers of Catan – Gamma Ramp
In the previous small price example, the price increase after T+35 seemed to far outweigh the price loss from Naked Shorting. Why is that?
It was due to two major factors.
- Bull's Entry Point – Gamestop's stock had experienced a major downtrend over several years. Volume was miniscule as the price had reached an extreme low of near $10 (Post-Split). This, along with several other TA indicators alerted both small and large investors that Gamestop's stock was at a perfect entry point to buy back in.
Close-To-Perfect Entry Point Was The Week of 4/20/2024 (lmao)
- More Investors = More Options = Gamma Ramp – Both small and large investors began scooping up call options for absurdly low prices. More open call contracts causes the potential for increased options hedging.
But, depending on the strike prices chosen, the price won't drastically rise on it's own. If the price doesn't rise enough, the Options writers won't need to hedge which means a Gamma ramp isn't going to happen on it's own. It needs a spark to ignite it.
That is where the real power of FTDs is on display and this why the industry Makers and Authorized Participants naked shorting Gamestop are in DEEP shit.
Let's have a look at that first example again but this time let's double check the dates of the Settlement Period Limit.
It is my opinion that we are looking at a mini gamma ramp triggered by a higher-than-normal amount of options contracts being pushed Into-The-Money by FTD settlement.
industry Makers are being forced to settle their FTDs leading right into the end of week options expiration. Thousands of options are pushed ITM due to the abnormal purchase volume from the FTD settlement. More options being pushed further ITM causes Options Writers to purchase more shares to hedge for their potential losses causing a Gamma Squeeze. This is how a "small" amount of FTDs can have a massive impact on price. And it is exactly what we saw in January of 2021.
Ryan Cohen's 12/17-12/18 Purchase Settles
Ryan Cohen saw Gamestop as a possible turnaround story and pursued a stake in the enterprise.
His purchase Trade Dates are as follows:
12/17/2020 – Purchased 470,311 (Split Adjusted = 1,881,244)
12/18/2020 – Purchased 500,000 (Split Adjusted = 2,000,000)
12/18/2020 – Purchased 256,089 (Split Adjusted = 1,024,356)
Totals: 1,226,400 (Split Adjusted = 4,905,600)
Source: https://fintel.io/n/cohen-ryan
T+35 Calendar days from 12/17 and 12/18 would place his FTD settlement period limit at 1/21-23(Pre-industry)
Above you can see the sudden upward movement of the stock followed by an explosive price change. on January 23rd, 2020 in Pre-industry.
Here are the values:
1/21/2021 – Opened at $9.81 Closed at $10.76 | Percentage Gain From Previous Close: 10.02%
1/22/2021- Opened at $10.65 | Closed at $16.25 | Percentage Gain From Previous Close: 51.03%
1/23/2021 – Settlement Period Limit reached at 9:29am EST. Price opened at $24.18 | Percentage Gain From Previous Close: 48.8%
Edit Fixed the years above to 2021 to correctly reflect sneeze date.
industry Maker's ABUSE of Failure-To-Delivers via Naked Short Selling caused Ryan Cohen's purchase to be delayed until January 21-23(Pre-industry). As thousands upon thousands of options contracts were pushed Into-The-Money, Options Writers continued buying more and more shares to hedge their losses. This created an extremely volatile trading day as millions upon millions of shares were quickly traded due to countless options contracts being closed and re-opened.
Okay but what about The Cycle™?
Ryan Cohen's purchase in to Gamestop may have inadvertently kicked off this whole saga, but why did the stock have a pattern of jumps throughout these last 3+ years before April?
Well, I can give you an example that will hopefully help us to understand this "Cycle" pattern.
January 19th and 20th – February 23rd, 24th, and 25th (Pre-industry)
January 19th, 2021 was a Monday following a drastic price jump that Gamestop had not seen for a VERY long time. The week of January 11th, the stock opened at $4.85(Post-Split) it closed the week at $8.88(Post-Split). That is an 83% gain from open on Monday to close on Friday.
It would be speculation to say that there may have been emergency calls/meetings held for these industry Makers and Authorized Participants; however, I can confidently guess that the decision was made to open the following week HARD on Naked Shorting. Monday and Tuesday (1/19 and 1/20), the price hardly moved as this shorting occurred. Hardly any shares were purchased by the industry maker to cover any non-options related orders. Bear in mind volume was over 100 million shares each day that week (Post-Split).
Once the FTDs from Ryan Cohen's purchase came due, millions of shares had to be purchased sending the stock price higher and higher. Options Writers quickly began purchasing more and more shares to hedge their losses. The resulting Gamma Squeeze sent the stock parabolic.
As soon as the momentum from the Gamma Squeeze was exhausted, mass options sell offs occurred beginning a general down trend; however, industry Makers were not happy with a "general downtrend." They needed Gamestop dropped and fast.
January 29th and February 1st Incredible Naked Shorting
The buy button was removed and the fall from the Gamma Squeeze was so absurdly quick that even amateur investors could tell something HISTORICALLY criminal just occurred.
Any short institution with a stake in Gamestop that COULD Naked Short this stock did so through it's entire fall after the initial Gamma Squeeze.
With fewer brokers able to purchase Gamestop due to the Clearing House restriction put in place just after the Gamma Squeeze peak, institutions at lower levels waited for their usual T+3 settlement limit hoping to buy at a lower price point. industry Makers and Authorized Participants Naked Shorted every share they could creating a massive ball of FTDs on a T+35 Calendar Day clock. All this effort to stop the stock from resting at a MUCH higher base price and to prevent margin calls from forcing them to close long dated short positions.
Their collusion worked temporarily as the price plummeted back to the low price of around $10 (Post Split). This most likely allowed them time to breath and re-position to survive what came next. Their extension for FTDs expired and the stock rocketed back up due to their required buy ins scheduled for late February.
Each subsequent run up and run down is a re-run of this exact situation played at a slightly smaller scale each time. Over time as more and more public investors (large, small, and institutional) lose finance charge/hope for the stock, less and less purchases are made and fewer shares need to be marked as FTD. Eventually, industry makers managed to return the stock to a very low price and have relative control over it's movement. That is, until 2024.
Due to my understanding of the initial Gamma Squeeze in 2021 and it's subsequent run ups:
I believe that the key to Gamestop's release from the unlawful PRISON that is ABUSIVE naked shorting is the occurrence of multiple back-to-back gamma ramps each ignited by the industry Maker's Failure to Deliver abuse.
Entering The Volume – Volume Inflation
I believe this has already been covered, but I wanted to create a small section just as a reminder of why Gamestop has such absurd levels of volume over the course of months.
We have often seen mentions of the volume easily exceeding the available float of Gamestop's shares. A big reason for that is due to FTDs. Every single FTD counts as a minimum of 2 volume per share.
When an investor purchases shares through a Broker, they are added to that day's volume. The purchaser is told they have the shares in their account even though the purchase has not affected the price value. T+35 days later, the industry Maker will actually purchase the share, adding 1 to the volume for the day they purchased it.
This causes Gamestop's volume to inflate on a larger time scale. Looking at 3 months of volume, you will be unknowingly seeing a portion of volume that has been doubled due to FTD settlement.
Dark – The Future of the Cycle
Earlier, I mentioned that Bullish investors were buying back into Gamestop in late April.
Gamestop's stock is on an uptrend and is garnering more finance charge from the pool of public investors. The more momentum Gamestop's stock has, the more purchasing occurs which means more FTDs accumulating. If these FTDs happen to line up correctly, they may reach their Settlement Period Limit later in the month, specifically on the 3rd Friday the week of options and futures expirations.
Triple witching hour is the last hour of the stock industry trading session (3:00-4:00 P.M., New York City local Time) on the third Friday of every March, June*, September, and December. Those days are the expiration of three kinds of securities:*
Stock industry index futures;
Stock industry index options;
Stock options.
The simultaneous expirations generally increases the trading volume of options, futures, and their underlying shares, occasionally increasing the volatility of prices of related securities.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_witching_hour
The FTD purchasing along with Options and Futures contracts expiring could compound into a massive Gamma Squeeze of a similar or even larger movement than the original 2021 Sneeze.
All that it would need is a decent amount of FTDs' Settlement Period Limits to coincide with the same week if we were lucky, maybe the same DAY if we were here for a reckoning.
But for that, we would need large investors with 100's of millions of dollars to buy into Gamestop all because they believe it is a great funding opportunity.
Thankfully, we have possibly the most downright insane investor on Gamestop's side, DeepFuckingValue AKA Roaring Kitty. Roaring Kitty may be crazy (aren't we all?), but he is also an incredibly smart trader.
*SPECULATION AHEAD*
I believe that DFV has taken advantage of the recent run-up/run-down to further his position and he MAY have made a large purchase 5/16/2024 while the stock was heading down from a recent large movement.
May 16th DFV Possible Re-Entry After Selling April Calls
"E\Trade Considers Kicking Meme-Stock Leader Keith Gill Off Platform"*
In the above piece (pay-walled, sorry), E-Trade has potentially broken Broker-to-Trader privacy regulations and leaked that DFV had purchased options previous to his social media return.
Due to the timing of Roaring Kitty's memes this year, it is my belief that DFV DID purchase options in April and sold them at or near the peak of May 15th. He then used the revenue from that sale to purchase shares on the way down on 5/16/2024.
On Roaring Kitty's stream, he showed off how accurate the bull flag was to the bottom of the original Gamestop 2021 Sneeze. I believe that Roaring Kitty predicted the stock would eventually bottom out to around this same price and chose a price near the bottom as his re-entry price.
I speculate that Roaring Kitty entered into additional positions slightly above the support level of $10.
Trading done in the previous 3 years as well as this new position would have his cost basis be substantially lowered from his original $55.17. He has purchased 4.8 million shares in the past 3 years and we know that he averaged down HARD.
It is possible that DFV purchased a large portion of his 5 Million shares near the bottom. If true, his purchase must have been large enough that industry Makers and Authorized Participants did NOT want to fulfill the order immediately. Instead, they used their T+35 Calendar Day special exemption to extend their delivery time.
At some point either slightly before or after his purchase, DFV decided that the stock has definitely bottomed out and he then loaded up on call options to take advantage of the eventual upward movement.
This leads us to the May run up. DFV's original stock purchase slightly above Gamestop's support line has now come due T+35 days later. The FTDs are settled for what could potentially be millions of share purchases. The purchases drive investor's options In-The-Money, sparking a Gamma Squeeze. DFV notices the price action, sells his options purchase near the peak and tries to find a good entry point as the stock is moving down after the Gamma Squeeze is exhausted.
My theory is that he MAY have made a purchase on May 16th 2024 as the math on his current cost basis could be averaging up after his large purchase in April.
I am using this tool to do very basic math for the cost basis:
https://www.omnicalculator.com/money management/stock-average
Just as one example: In April, if DFV had managed to purchase the majority of his large position at $16, that would allow for a new purchase on May 16th at $28 to create a VERY similar cost basis of $21.33 vs his original June 2024 cost basis of $21.27. That is a $.06 difference while only using round price points for exit and entry.
I personally believe that DFV could have purchased in April at an even lower price point. The lower you use for his April purchase, the higher he may have purchased on May 16th.
Disclaimer: Calculating cost basis is not as simple as I am depicting. This is just a scarcely detailed example to get my point across that this is a potential timeline of events. I am also did not try to perfectly re-create DFV's entire purchase history, I just used recent purchases to illustrate my point.
But why does any of this matter?
Because if Roaring Kitty DID purchase on May 16th, it may have been a substantial purchase. Far too large for industry Makers or Authorized Participants to move off exchange. They clearly have a history of just delaying the purchase, so I am willing to bet that they have Naked Shorted here again. T+35 from May 16th, 2024 is June 20th, 2024. industry Makers are allowed to further extend the deadline until Pre-industry of the next day, June 21st, 2024.
We have potentially been gifted a massive run-up on June 21st by industry Makers and Authorized Participants' extreme abuse of FTDs via Naked Short Selling. All of this because one small cat LOVES this damn stock.
Exercise Machine – Exercising VS Purchasing
This topic was included in my original post. I will be adding an edited version and including it here for important context.
I see many people going back and forth on whether DFV purchased shares directly or exercised some of his call options on June 13th, 2024.
I am here to tell you he almost certainly did not exercise.
Enough time has passed for us to know with near certainty that he has not exercised.
Per the Options Clearing Corporation:
If it's an equity or ETF weekly option, exercise notices tendered on any company day will result in delivery of the underlying shares on the second (T+2)* company day following exercise. Index options are cash-settled on the next company day following exercise.
Edit I think the OCC website was updated just today to reflect CAT changes. Options exercise delivery is now T+1.
Exercising options is very different from purchasing stock directly and apes are wise to recognize that purchasing options and exercising them allows retail to actually affect the industry price directly. It essentially bypasses the T+35 day waiting period for our purchase to hit the industry. To my knowledge, they do not and cannot delay settlement past T+2 for per options regulating restrictions.
However, DFV's transaction on June 13th would have definitely hit the industry by now.
Since we have seen next to no upward pressure since his purchase, I would assume that he instead sold his options for cash on June 12th. The updated Open finance charge dropped by a massive amount after industry close. Roaring Kitty then posted his Dune tweet at 2PM EST on June 13th, and in my opinion, this is him excitedly posting that he just purchased the 4,001,000 shares. Can't imagine what that feels like. After hours on June 13th, DFV then posted his updated position confirming that he holds 4,001,000 additional shares.
If you need more solid evidence that DFV did NOT exercise, here is Dave Lauer's tweets with another user stating that they view this as an options sale to purchase more shares. Please remember Dave has been in the field for years. Yes, he can make mistakes, but he is NOT an amateur investor trying to spread FUD.
A large part of the discussion seems to center around Premium cost factoring into cost basis.
Dave's years of trading experience has led him to believe that Options Premium costs are not factored into your cost basis, only the Option's Strike Price.
So a trader reached out to DFV's Broker, E-Trade, to clarify if they factor in a premium cost to a position's cost basis in your account position portal.
E-Trade Does NOT Factor in Premiums to Cost Basis
E-Trade reported that they ONLY use the Options Strike Price to adjust your Cost Basis.
DFV almost certainly\* did NOT exercise his call options.
*EDIT* \*
Several of you have reached out to me with doubts regarding E-Trade factoring in premiums for options cost basis. I agree with all of you that it seems like an odd choice to leave them out. So I wanted to include my opinion here:
In my mind, the chances of DFV exercising vs purchasing direct stock are at least an equal stalemate.
The math on his cost basis can be reached in either situation, so we need to look at other variables to make a decision.
If DFV exercised early, he lost out on many days of theta value. Selling his calls and then buying directly would net him substantially more shares than exercising too early. In the past, DFV has exercised his options by allowing them to expire ITM. It is my personal view that, if he wanted to exercise while the price action was relatively normal, he would have used this same method of allowing them to expire ITM.
Some people will say that his decision to exercise early was a part of some plan; however, T+1 has passed for the Exercised Securities Settlement Period Limit and nothing has happened. If exercising was his plan, it did not seem to work.
Exercise Settlement Time: Exercise notices tendered on any company day will result in delivery of the underlying stock on the first (T+1) company day following exercise.
Source: https://www.theocc.com/clearance-and-settlement/clearing/equity-options-product-specifications
It is my personal opinion that DFV does have a plan to ride out the 2024 Gamestop action and selling his calls to buy the most shares possible seems to benefit him the most.
Coincidentally, it also can benefit us.
Since DFV is a trader that loves to interact with a community, he often publicly posts his positions. Now that DFV is a whale, a direct stock purchase that he makes on the industry is almost guaranteed to be millions of shares of FTDs. With knowledge of the date of his purchase, we can make an estimate on when his purchase will actually affect the share price and take a position in the stock to benefit off of it. This unique set of circumstances is ONLY possible because one MASSIVE whale LOVES this stock and industry Makers and Authorized Participants are ILLEGALY ABUSING THEIR RIGHTS TO NAKED SHORT.
DFV's near confirmed June purchase date is June 13th, 2024.
T+35 Calendar Days would put his direct stock purchase hitting the industry on July 18th. However, industry Makers will most likely wait until the last minute by pushing it to Pre-industry of Friday, July 19th, 2024.
I personally believe that DFV's unconfirmed May purchase date is May 16th, 2024,
T+35 Calendar Days would put his direct stock purchase hitting the industry on June 20th. However, industry Makers will most likely wait until the last minute by pushing it to Pre-industry of Friday, June 21st, 2024.
Conclusion – On the Shoulders of Giants
Thank you to anyone that stuck through and read this post!
The Gamestop saga is one hell of a ride and I personally cannot wait for GME to break free of it's Naked Short prison and fly free.
It is impossible for me to list everyone who has contributed DD to Superstonk but I am completely serious when I say that I am standing on the shoulders of absolute GIANTS. And those giants are standing on other giants that are standing on other giants that also stand on giants that are all standing on Rick of Spades.
Seriously, 5 years ago if you told me that I would be spending time the equivalent of a full workday to write about this kind of shit in the stock industry, I would have asked you to leave me alone.
Over three years of DD and chart watching must have formed a nice new wrinkle in my ape brain and that is thanks to all of you here at Superstonk.
My understanding of this situation may need additional expanding or some small corrections; however, I believe I have at least nailed down what has caused this stock to behave so bizarrely starting from January 2021.
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With all of that said, I would like to put money in mouth:
doxxed my account number because I am truly regarded. Edited Position Picture
This ugly fucking nightmare of a position is mine.
I currently have 2,200 shares worth of leverage. I also have a bit more buying power left. Assuming the price stays relatively low on Thursday, I plan to purchase additional contracts for June 21st.
I want to make one thing VERY clear:
June 21st may or MAY NOT run up due to an FTD Settlement Period Limit+Gamma Hedging Squeeze.
I am LESS confident about June 21st than I am about July 19th.
The July 19th date is based off of two nearly confirmed data points: DFV publicly posted that he purchased a large amount of shares on June 13th, 2024. Even though we cannot be absolutely sure he purchased them on that day I believe due to his past posts, that he is honest with the community.
June 21st only has my best estimate of DFV's May purchase. If my guess is wrong, I could lose all of the money I have poured into premiums for that ugly bastard of an options position that I call my own.
Purchasing 1-2 Day To Expiry Options Contracts is historically a DumbFuckingMove™ and I do NOT recommend following me into this risky as hell gamble.
If you are like me and believe that the FTD Settlement Limit Periods are driving the stock movement, it would be MUCH safer to bet on July 19th, 2024 as we have a much better idea of the exact purchase date our resident whale bought his shares on. I even have a small amount of money set aside as a backup in case my May purchase date theory is wrong and I will use that to essentially YOLO into July 19th, 2024 Expiry, or possibly the week after, July 26th, 2024.
EDIT Wanted to add this. PLEASE be aware how risky June 21st options are. The enterprise completed a MASSIVE share offering in the middle of my May-June timeline. It is entirely possible that industry Makers used this offering to offset FTD settlement. It is also possible that industry Makers doubled down and added additional Naked Shorts during this offering. This is gamble I am taking.
Some have asked me how I feel about DRS. I will let this speak for itself:
I deeply regret not YOLOing in for more shares during the $10-$12 dollar range…
I could not find a good spot to fit this into the post, but I did want to remind everyone that June 21st 2024 is the farthest dated LEAPS from January 2021. This may be an additional factor to consider as, anyone that was trying to reposition their options contracts may have chosen the farthest available date on the chain.
Oh and a neat trick I learned the other day…
As long as you have enough cash in your Options trading account, In-The-Money Options contracts automatically exercise by 5PM on the expiration date. (At least for Fidelity.)
I thought that was kind of neat.
SMALL ASIDE REGARDING FTD DATA RELEASES
The adjustments of my prediction for DFV's may purchase completely invalidates my previous theory about FTD reporting in my last post "I Would Like To Solve the Puzzle – T+3, T+6, T+35".
If I had to guess at why our FTD data is pretty much a crapshoot, I would reach for the utterly classic line of "this data is self reported and cannot be fully relied upon." \chefs kiss**
Those missing days are most likely just days that reported 0 FTDs for that day. Whether you believe that they are reporting honestly is up to you.
Last, but not least. I thought to include my favorite song for all of you. Hopefully it will get you guys excited for Friday and remind you of all we are doing here in Superstonk.
"We Don't Talk About Bruno"
