Treasury yields (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) are on the decline this morning after inflation data from the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Index came in line with expectations with April’s core PCE rising 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year. As inflation slows but price pressures remain a big hazard, what does this print mean for the bond industry?
JPMorgan US CIO for Fixed earnings, Currencies, and Commodities Kay Herr sits down in-studio with Yahoo money management’s Catalysts to look deeper into April’s inflation data and what this means for the Federal Reserve’s inflation rate target.
“If you look underneath in some of the details, if you look on a three-month annualized basis, we’ve gone from a 4.4% number in March down to 3.46% in April. That’s a pretty meaningful step down,” Herr explains. “If you look on a month-over-month [basis], in April that was running 0.33%, March we’re running 0.249%. And then on an average monthly basis in the first quarter, things were at about 0.36%, for April [it’s] 0.25%. So a reasonable step down moving in line with what the Fed thinks.”
Herr underlines the Fed’s dual mandate objective in regulators’ decision on cutting loan charge rates or holding them higher for longer: “We’re going to start to see a little bit of softness in in the labor industry. And that’s going to lead the Fed… to move toward cutting rates, yes.”
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