June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) brought good news for the Federal Reserve as inflation cooled more than expected. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joins Morning Brief to break down the print and what it tells investors about the housing sector.
“It was pretty close to script even a little bit better than script. It shows that inflation is moderating steadily, coming back into the Federal Reserve’s target,” Zandi says of the print. He explains that an often overlooked inflation measure is “harmonized CPI,” that excludes the implicit cost of home ownership, and that figure has been at the Fed’s target reccently. He adds that overall, “If we’re not at target by any measure, it’s in clear view. It’s dead ahead and all the trend lines look pretty good.” With the soft landing in sight, he expects the first rate cut to come in September as more economic data rolls in.
Zandi explains that rate cuts will likely benefit lower-earnings households, allowing them to make lower payments on borrowing cards and loans. He believes rate cuts will also help normalize the yield curve while moderating bond sector volatility.
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