As the first trading day of July kicks off, Josh Schafer joins Madison Mills and Brad Smith on the Morning Brief to break down three themes to watch during the second half of the year.
Big Tech earnings have pushed the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to new heights. With the AI race showing no signs of slowing, the sector (XLK) could continue its earnings outperformance and keep the index out of an earnings recession.
Investors are pricing in two loan charge rate cuts by the end of the year, despite the Federal Reserve indicating only one. The Fed’s vision of a soft landing could become a hard one as jobless claims increase, revealing some volatility in the overall health of the economy.
Finally, the US presidential election will likely trigger sector volatility. The US consumer discretionary (XLY) and renewables sectors could be vulnerable if Republicans take the majority in the White House and both chambers of Congress. On the other hand, financials (XLF) could likely benefit from the scenario.
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