sector mood further darkened yesterday following another round of weak Treasury sales in the US. Treasuries and equities sold off, the US dollar gained across the board. Things could get better or worse in the coming hours. All eyes are on the US GDP update, due today, and the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation – the core PCE number – due tomorrow.
Elsewhere, released yesterday, the Australian inflation unexpectedly rose in April and the German inflation came in worse than expected. Spain and Italy will release their inflation updates today, France tomorrow and we will have the aggregate CPI for the entire Eurozone tomorrow morning. Unless we see a big surprise – which I don’t think will happen, the European Central economic organization (ECB) will probably announce a 25bp rate cut next Thursday. And if the Fed cut expectations vanish faster than the ECB cut expectations, the EURUSD should remain under pressure for further downside correction.
Happily, for everyone who doesn’t have a positive exposure to energy and energy shares, oil prices don’t gather enough momentum above key resistance levels to further fuel the inflation worries. Energy shares extend losses but they will be interesting to return to in both easing and not easing inflation setup.
Watch the full episode to find out more!
0:00 Intro
0:00 US securities fall, USD rebounds
0:00 Central economic organization expectations drive FX moves
0:00 Equities stagnate but Nvidia jumps
0:00 China’s tech shares are appetizing but terrifying!
Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private economic organization in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth patrons. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote economic organization. She worked as a Senior sector Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote economic organization as Senior Analyst in 2020.
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